West Virginia really has not looked good this season especially on the road where their defense has been atrocious giving up 31 to Maryland, 49 to Syracuse, 31 to Rutgers, and then rebounding to give up 21 to Cinci (playing without Collaros most of the way). West Virginia had just 16 sacks all year long before tallying 10 a week ago vs. Pitt, but they'll have their work cut out for them South Florida has been sacked just 14 times and it appears they will have BJ Daniels for this game. A game that is not just any game to either team. West Virginia wants that BCS game and South Florida wants to win and get in.
West Virginia has struggled big time on offense when they are rushed by opposing defense and this to me is just a bad match up for them. South Florida is very fast and they're 2nd in the nation in sacks and 2nd in tackles for loss. Their offense on the other hand that many doubt is the 2nd most productive in conference play and is very balanced. This is a defense that simply had a let down vs. Louisville after holding Miami to 6 points. The key is if South Florida can run on West Virginia and I think they can as West Virginia is allowing 4.89 yards per carry compared to 3.07 at home and folks they placed the nation's worst rushing attack in Rutgers and still gave up 31 points. Rutgers does not have a juggernaut passing game by any means so that just goes to show you this is not the same West Virginia defense from years past. South Florida on the flip side can absolutely make what is already a one dimensional offense as they are allowing just 2.48 yards per carry at home. I think their pass rush is the key and I think LB DeDe Lattimore and DE Ryne Giddins will have huge games leading their team to victory.
Before we finish this up let's just go over my favorite stats 3rd down and the Red Zone. It's a crucial aspect of the game when backing a under dog. Can the under dog trade TD's for field goals and in this case they 100% absolutely can. West Virginia is nothing special just 40% overall on 3rd down offensively and on the road 34.5% while USF defense is allowing 34% at home. West Virginia's defense as you guessed on the road is worse allowing 43.94 % conversions. Their offense struggled big time on the road vs. Cinci and Rutgers and USF has a better run defense than Rutgers and are better vs. the pass than both of those teams. Red Zone also advantage for South Florida defensively as they allow just 44% TD's on RZ trips for opposing offenses. West Virginia's offense 64% but 50% in road games. South Florida's offense meanwhile continues to improve in the red zone as they are 60% at home, but 70% overall in their last 4 games. West Virginia's defense allowing 73.68% TD's in their road games this year. On top of all the poor road play they are penalized 7.8 times per game on the road.
